Adjunct Professor of
Finance, MGSM
Tom Valentine
The Australian economy has come through
the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) fairly well.
This is not surprising given the economy
was strong, our banks were in a sound
position and relatively little of the US
toxic debt had found its way here. From
Australia’s point of view, the GFC was an
external shock arising overseas rather than
from local conditions. A simple response
would have been for the Australian dollar to
depreciate, increasing competitiveness of
Australian exporters and import competing
businesses.
However, in response to the usual media
hysteria, an inexperienced government
rapidly cobbled together a wasteful and
unproductive stimulus package which
drove the Australian dollar up and made
Australian exporters less competitive.
The stimulus package was not seen to
slow the economy down but instead
caused a substitution of sales of fl at
screen televisions for export sales. In a
fl oating exchange rate environment, a fi scal
stimulus is an accelerator connected to a
brake (the exchange rate).
This mechanism
would have been better supported by
a reduction in interest rates.
In fact, the
RBA continued increasing interest rates
for approximately one year after the 2007
emergence of an overseas fi nancial crisis.
The stimulus was unnecessary and has left
us with considerable debt. The government
forecasts that the budget will be in surplus
shortly, but this forecast appears to be
based on very optimistic assumptions and
a new tax with a very uncertain future.
The government has not helped this
problem by rushing out a cobbled together
revision of the taxation arrangements for
mining companies.
The government calls this proposal ‘tax
reform,’ although it is a far cry from the ‘root
and branch reform’ promised by the Prime
Minister. It does not treat different businesses
equally and it is retrospective. The latter is
poison for international investors. Also, all
commentators agree that the bond rate is a
very defective indicator of a normal return in
a risky business such as mining. As a result,
the mining industry tax rate (around 58%)
is too high and makes us uncompetitive
on an international basis. This is no time
for a government to engage in amateurish
tinkering with the tax system.
The recent strength of the economy can
be attributed to the increase in commodity
prices which have almost returned to the
levels of June 2008. It appears we have
benefi ted from a fi scal stimulus – the
Chinese fi scal stimulus. However, the
economy is far from back to its best and
there remain signs of weakness in the
employment market. It is likely that the RBA
has moved too quickly to raise interest rates.
Australian interest rates do not infl uence
global commodity prices, and increases
impact mainly on the lagging sectors of the
economy.
Investment possibilities
Long-term investors (that is, those who will
not need access to cash in the near future)
should invest in so-called growth assets
such as property and/or shares. Over long
periods, these asset classes have yielded
higher average returns than alternative
choices. At the moment property may be
a better choice than shares for nervous
investors, with the price of the latter very
sensitive to overseas developments and the
vagaries of government policy making.
A ‘bubble’ in property prices has been
suggested, whereby an increase in price
is not justifi ed by the fundamental pricing
determinants. This does not appear to be
generally true. While there may have been a
small bubble at the lower end of the market,
it can more likely be attributed to the New
Home Owners’ Grant, part of the stimulus
package.
Current projections of population suggest
that demand continues to grow steadily, and
will do so into the future. There are supply
constraints which mean that there is likely
to be a continuing property shortage. State
governments have restricted the release of
land and their levies have increased the cost
and slowed down developments.
One of the many incorrect conclusions
drawn from the GFC is that leverage
(borrowing to invest) is dangerous. It is
true that many investors were over-geared
in that period, but judicious borrowing is
an important tool in investment. Property
is ideally suited for this purpose because
property loans do not involve margin calls,
but provide considerable fl exibility.
It is impossible to time your investment
purchases so that you always buy at the
lowest possible price and sell at the highest.
Instead it is more important to acquire quality
assets which will perform well over time. For
this, you need to make use of competent
professional advice.